Ethiopia: The Demise of EPRDF in the Offing following Split within the TPLF

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The long simmering feud between the Azeb and Sibhat group splits the shacky governing party in Ethiopia to its demise.
The long simmering feud between Azeb and Sibhat splits the shaky governing party in Ethiopia in to two.

By Tazabi-1,

The existence of EPRDF has been hinging on TPLF’s cohesiveness and strength since its inception, however after the death of dictator Meles Zenawi, the rubber stump parties that were molded in TPLF’s desire are starting to question the very reason for their existence and somehow show signs of independent decision making- the recent discord within OPDO is case in point.

To begin with, the front was built on sandy grounds. Member parties were formed by putting few loyal figures at the helm of the member parties who act like little dictators in deciding who should be elected for central committee under direct order from Meles himself. 

Now those party leaders like Bereket Simon and Abadula Gemeda and others are seen by the splinter group of TPLF as the “Azeb Mesfin group” sympathizers and they are likely to fall with the fall of the Azeb’s group.

The recent squabble within OPDO is sufficient indicator that OPDO might even disintegrate before TPLF does. And, it very unlikely that Bereket Simon who has been hanging on power by Meles’ unflinching support will have strong influence in shaping the future of his “Amahara” party. He is more likely to resign in the upcoming election depending on his assessment of the situation within TPLF. If Bereket senses that Sebhat Nega is gaining the upper hand, he will abandon Azeb’s group and save his neck before it is too late. Since the death of Meles, Bereket has been a fatherless child with no constituency and will fall with the fall of the Azeb’s group.

Sources are saying that the Sebhat Nega group is gaining ground in convincing the rank and files of TPLF that the spread of Azeb’s sphere of influence in the party will irreversibly kill the TPLF because of her corrupt nature. According to [the authors]  sources, Sebhat has managed to bring TPLF’s top journalist and entrepreneur, Aregawi Berhe of  The Reporter newspaper, into his fold. Reporter’s recent campaign to get Meles’s life size photographs removed from the city’s landscape goes in line with Sebhat’s assertion that TPLF made Meles Zenawi not the other way around.

Sebhat who has never even expressed his condolences to Azeb Mesfin except attending the funeral of Meles is believed to hold immeasurable grudge against her because of her role in his expulsion from top managerial position of the business conglomerate known as EFFORT. He is now revenging under the guise of saving TPLF from demise by welcoming expelled leaders of the front.

The Azeb group mainly led by Bereket Simon who is also behind Hailemaria’s nomination for PM is intensively engaged in convincing US and other western governments that the splinter group within TPLF will endanger the constitutional governance of the country and their actions will eventually lead the country to chaos and civil disorder. However, Sebhat has convinced many influential TPLF leaders to be on his side and it is very likely that the motion to welcome back ex-TPLF leaders into the party will get majority vote during the upcoming TPLF congress to be held in Mekele this month. Once the ex-TPLF leaders back to the leadership circle, their priority will be to attack Azeb and expel her from EFFORT and TPLF politburo for lack of managerial skills and political fortitude.

Above mentioned factors are within the realm of TPLF influence, however it will have less leverage in controlling the multitude of problems facing Ethiopia like the intensifying Muslim uprisings, spiraling inflation, increasing poverty, intensifying hostility from Eritrean government and mushrooming rebel groups of all sorts in all parts of the country.

It is only a matter of time before the Muslim uprising start to spill over from the confinement of mosque yards. Soon we will witness Muslim Ethiopians occupying Ethiopian diplomatic offices abroad and also occupying government building in Addis and other parts of the country.

There is also high probability that Christian orthodox followers to copycat the Muslims to express their opposition to government’s interference in the affairs of the orthodox church.

The genie is out of the bottle and EPRDF run its course and now it is facing its final demise.

It doesn’t matter what the TPLF does to reform itself, surely, it will never be able to win the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people. The chickens are coming home to roost and TPLF’s all evil acts are now coming back to haunt it. Soon Ethiopians will witness many TPLF leaders jumping of the ship and trying to settle abroad to enjoy all the money they have looted over the years.

The Diaspora has a duty to sue every single member of TPLF who would attempt to live in luxury in western countries using the money looted from the impoverished country. Each TPLF leader has to account for every dollar spent abroad to send his/her kids to expensive and exclusive schools and buy luxury homes. There are signs that few TPLF leaders are opting to live in corrupt Asian countries like Thailand and China to escape the public outcry for their embezzlement of public funds to lead life of luxury in the west.

Ethiopian Muslims massive protest rally today (9th Feb 2013) after the state owned television (ETV) released a documentary accusing Ethiopian Muslims as an Al-Qaida affiliates.